JOSEPH KABILA EST-IL COMPLICE?
SUNDAY, DECEMBER 9, 2012
What can we expect from Kampala?
The M23 and
Congolese government delegation have finally begun negotiations today––it wasn't
a very promising start, as both sides led off with accusations.
Discussions will begin in earnest tomorrow. What can we
expect?
These initial discussions will focus on the rules of the
game––who participates (government, opposition, M23, civil society?), what is on
the agenda (just the M23 agreement or much broader political issues?) and what
the procedural guidelines will be. It is clear that the two sides will lock
horns over all of these issues.
President Joseph Kabila's delegation,
led by Foreign Minister Raymond Tshibanda, has said the talks will focus on the
March 23, 2009 agreement––aside from the return of refugees, these are largely
issues to do with the ranks and salaries of M23 officers, as well as the
integration of their political cadres. One of the previous negotiators told me,
"For us this is a matter of offering the officers positions in the army, the
political demands are window-dressing." One of the current delegates suggested
that they could integrate both political and military cadres, and that the main
sticking points had to do with the most notorious human rights abusers, such as
Bosco Ntaganda, Innocent Kaina, and Sultani Makenga. It's probably redundant to
say: this cutting-up-the-pie logic has not been very successful in the
past.
For the M23 much more is at stake. Their delegation, led by
Executive Secretary Francois Rucogoza, has said they want to discuss the
fraudulent elections of last year (which, ironically, some of their own officers
helped rig), the "constitutional order" (they have said they want more
decentralization or federalism), and justice for attacks against Dr. Denis
Mukwege and Floribert Chebeya. "A lot has happened since the M23 deal," Bertrand
Bisimwa, their spokesperson, told me, "we have political demands, too." He
continued, "We know for them this is about partage des postes [a sharing of
positions], but that is not what we want."
But, at the
same time, contradictions plague each delegation. In the Kinshasa camp, there
have been some sharp contradictions––General Olenga, the new land forces
commander, has said they will continue to wage war against the M23, a view
shared by many in the army who are dismayed at having to negotiate with their
enemies once again. But Kabila and his inner circle seem sure they can strike a
deal with the rebels. According to parliamentarians, when Prime Minister Matata
Ponyo went to parliament recently and began to fiercely denounce "the Rwandan
aggression," phone calls came from the presidency to ask him to stop. A close
Kabila advisor also said "the boss" was not happy with General Olenga about his
belligerent statements. Nobody, however, in the presidential camp seems ready to
talk about constitutional reform, the rigged elections, or justice for Chebeya
and Mukwege (although a bill on electoral reform was already being discussed
before Goma fell).
In the meantime, the political opposition has
declined the government's offer to participate, saying that the March 23, 2009
agreement had never been approved by parliament. Meanwhile, the Episcopal
Conference (CENCO) made a strong statement, warning about "the trap of
negotiations," and against "deals that could bring about the balkanization of
the country." The M23, unfazed, has demanded that both civil society and the
opposition take place in the negotiations.
In the rebels camp, tensions
continue between officers loyal to Bosco and those close to Makenga (and by
proxy, Laurent Nkunda), the so-called kimbelembele and kifuafua ("ahead-ahead"
and "chest forward"). Baudouin Ngaruye, a Bosco loyalist, was recently promoted
to the rank of general, reportedly without consulting Makenga, and M23 officials
I spoke with in Goma were openly critical of one or the other camp.
The
rifts between the two sides, as well as within each delegation, will make for a
rough, and probably lengthy, ride.
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